Rumors of "Shadow Chairman" hit the dollar hard, and the decline after the annual low is difficult to stop?

Asian Handicap Market Review

On Wednesday, as Trump announced that the US side will meet with Iran next week, risk aversion sentiment eased, and the market generally expects the Federal Reserve to resume its interest rate cut cycle soon. As of now, the US dollar is quoted at 97.46.

Geo-conflict: ① Iran confirmed that its nuclear facilities were "severely damaged" in the US air strike. ②Trump: He believes that the war between Iran and Israel has ended and the conflict may break out again, and may soon; he will not give up sanctions on Iran; he does not believe that Iran will re-produce nuclear plans, and the US will meet with Iran next week, and does not believe that the nuclear agreement is necessary. ③ During the conflict between Israeli ground assault forces, they went deep into Iran to carry out operations. ④ The CIA said several key nuclear facilities in Iran have been destroyed.

Federal Official News:

①Powell: Tariffs are one-time impacts may become a basic expectation, but they need to be dealt with carefully; federal debt issues are not considered in monetary policy decisions; the stablecoin industry has gradually matured. ②Collins: It is the time to stay patient and cautious. Rate cuts may be possible later this year, but it depends on the tariff impact.

Powell's Congressional hearing day: Reiterating that there is no urgent action, tariffs are unprecedented, and it is difficult to predict the impact on inflation. Consumers may have to bear some tariffs, and the trade agreement may make the Federal Reserve consider cutting interest rates.

Trump: The next Fed chairman will be elected from three or four people.

The Fed proposes to relax its strength targeting large banksReplenish leverage ratio requirements. The head of housing supervision of the US: It plans to use cryptocurrency as mortgage collateral and requires the "two houses" to be prepared.

White House Economic avaforexcn.commission Director Hassett: If countries reach a trade agreement, the "retaliation tax" in the Trump tax bill can be abolished.

Kaoavaforexcn.comSheng: Copper prices are expected to peak at US$10,050 per ton this year.

Spain refuses to increase defense spending, and Trump threatens to double the price of Spain in the trade deal.

EU warns: Retaliation will still be carried out even if Trump implements benchmark tariffs.

Summary of institutional views

Swedish Nordic Bank of Sian: Euro consolidation may continue until X month, and 1.18-1.20 will be the main level after takeoff

We believe that as long as geopolitics (Middle East conflict) does not cause oil prices to soar, it will be irrelevant to the market. Against the backdrop of weak global economic growth, the sharp expansion of energy supply and sufficient oil production capacity should limit the potential rise in energy prices. Once the effects of value-added tax increase fade, the market narrative will shift from focusing on stagflation caused by tariffs to focusing on benign inflation. There is a possibility of a more dovish policy in the Fed, especially in the expectation of a more dovish new chairman in 2026. Fiscal pressure and inflation concerns are a bad avaforexcn.combination for the bond market, and the narrative shift in inflation and interest rate cuts will ease the bond market panic.

We believe that the US dollar will continue to adjust and strategically transfer portfolio allocation. Based on speculative position rotation alone, the euro should be able to reach the 1.18-1.20 area against the US dollar. But the euro should be in a consolidation phase before breaking through higher, and consolidation may continue until the end of July. As the negative theme of the dollar expands, the differentiation between G10 currencies may turn into catching up, the Canadian dollar shorts cover, the yen falls as US interest rates rises, and Asian foreign exchange rises as Fed rate cuts/stock markets rises.

Analyst Eren Sengezer: Poundu, due to the Bank of England's "dove" remarks, the current technical indicators suggest...

On Wednesday, Poundu US failed to continue this week's strong upward trend and pulled back moderately amid hesitation.

Early, Bank of England Governor Bailey, testified to the House of avaforexcn.commons Economic Affairs avaforexcn.committee that they have begun to observe signs of softening of the labour market. In addition, Bank of England Deputy Governor Ramsden also pointed out that if there is stronger evidence that inflation will be below target, they may speed up the pace of rate cuts. Although these avaforexcn.comments failed to prompt a violent market reaction immediately, they could be part of the reason for the current hesitation of Pound and U.S.

From the 4-hour chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains above 60, indicating that the bullish bias remains.

Resistance level: 1.3630 (static level), 1.3700 (integer mark), 1.3740 (static level)

Support levels: 1.3580 (static level), 1.3530 (100-cycle SMA), 1.3500 (integer mark)

Mitsubishi UF: The Bank of England may slow down the pace of quantitative tightening

Mitsubishi UF's Derek Halpenny said in the report that the Bank of England may announce in September that it will reduce its quantitative tightening plan and slow down the speed of reducing its holdings of bonds. These changes will take effect from October. Halpenny said Bank of England Governor Bailey on Tuesday suggested a possible adjustment to the central bank's quantitative tightening policy. "Governor Bailey's hints will certainly further increase expectations that the pace of quantitative tightening will slow down." He said that, under other conditions, this should be beneficial for UK government bonds.

Westpac: RBA may cut interest rates in July, but it is not a foregone conclusion

Westpac said it is expected that the RBA will cut interest rates in July rather than August, but this is not a sure thing that the market looks like. If overseas risks are overweighted, the RBA sometimes violates market pricing. However, it is the time to act in advance, because it will soon make the decision anyway. The RBA's outlook remains subject to concerns about tight labor markets, slow growth in overall economic productivity and the impact of recovery in demand on prices. Therefore, we expect that in the post-meeting statement, its wording will still be in unclear or even reluctant language. We continue to expect a final rate of 2.85% (three more cuts after the upcoming rate cut), but the RBA is unlikely to give any forward guidance in this direction.

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