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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "【Avatradescn Official Website】: Collection of positive and negative news that affects the foreign exchange market". Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
1. Geopolitics and risk sentiment
Favoritative factors: The situation in the Middle East eased after Trump announced a ceasefire, and Iran's retaliation against US military bases did not cause substantial casualties, and the Strait of Hormuz was not blocked, and the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled down. In addition, Malaysia and other countries have called for resolving conflicts through dialogue and providing support for regional stability.
Badminant factors: The conflict between Israel and Iran has not yet avaforexcn.completely subsided. The Iranian Atomic Energy Organization said it has taken measures to continue to promote the nuclear project, and the two sides still accused each other of breach of contract after the ceasefire. The geopolitical risk premium has not yet avaforexcn.completely subsided. If the conflict escalates again, it may trigger a flood of safe-haven funds into currencies such as the yen and Swiss francs.
2. Central Bank policy and interest rate expectations
Fed positive factors:
Fed's dovish signal release: Fed Vice Chairman Jefferson hinted that interest rate cuts may be cut in July, and market expectations for interest rate cuts have heated up. The CMEFedWatch tool shows that the probability of interest rate cuts in July has risen to 75%. This statement is in contrast to the previous hawkish stance, which may suppress the US dollar index and be beneficial to non-US currencies.
ECB policy shift: The ECB stated that the rate cut cycle is avaforexcn.coming to an end after 25 basis points cut on June 5, but the market expects another drop in September. Germany's IFO business prosperity index rebounded to 88.4 in June, indicating that corporate confidence has increased and supported the euro-dollar exchange rate.
Bank of Japan's policy is stable: The Bank of Japan keeps interest rates unchanged by 0.5%, and slows down the pace of bond purchase reduction, policy uncertainty is reduced, and the yen exchange rate is supported.
Badministrative factors:
Internal Federal Reserve avaforexcn.comDifferences: Although the market expects a rate cut, the Fed's dot chart shows that there are internal differences on the rate cut path, and some officials are worried about a rebound in inflation, which may limit the decline of the US dollar.
Expectations for the Bank of England's interest rate cuts heated up: The Bank of England kept interest rates unchanged on June 19, but three internal avaforexcn.committee members supported the rate cut. The market expects a rate cut in August, and the pound is under pressure against the US dollar.
Bank of Canada is cautious in policy: The Bank of Canada keeps interest rates unchanged by 2.75% due to uncertainty in US tariffs. If economic weakness intensifies, interest rates may be cut. The Canadian dollar against the US dollar is greatly affected by volatility in crude oil prices.
3. Economic data and market trends
Favorites:
German economic data is strong: Germany's IFO business prosperity index rose to 88.4 in June, higher than expected, indicating that corporate confidence is strengthened, which is good for the euro.
U.S. Treasury bond auction results: The yield on the US 2-year Treasury bond auction rose to 3.96% on June 24, indicating that market expectations for short-term interest rates have increased, but the bid multiple has slightly decreased, reflecting the weakening of demand.
Current oil inventories: U.S. API crude oil inventories fell by 10.133 million barrels in the week ending June 20, which was beneficial to oil prices and indirectly supported avaforexcn.commodity currencies such as the Australian dollar.
Bold factors:
Software U.S. labor market: The number of initial unemployment claims for the week ending June 20 was 247,000, higher than expected, indicating that the labor market has cooled down and may strengthen the Fed's expectation of a rate cut.
Eurozone economic growth is weak: the initial value of the manufacturing PMI in the euro zone in June was 49.4, the initial value of the service PMI was 50, and the initial value of the avaforexcn.comprehensive PMI was 50.2, indicating that the momentum of economic growth is insufficient and the upward space of the euro against the US dollar is limited.
Crude oil demand concerns: Despite the decline in API crude oil inventories, gasoline inventories increased by 202,000 barrels, indicating weak demand and negative oil prices, which in turn affects avaforexcn.commodity currencies such as the Canadian dollar.
4. Technical analysis and capital flow
Favoritable factors: The daily chart of the US dollar index shows that the exchange rate runs below the pivot point near 98.719, and if it falls below the 96.939 support level, it may further decline. The euro fluctuates against the US dollar in the range of 1.15-1.17, and if it breaks through the 1.17 resistance level, it may open upward space.
Badministrative factors: The US dollar fluctuates around the pivot point of 158.27, and may continue to strengthen if it breaks through the 159.33 resistance level. The Australian dollar is in a downward channel against the US dollar, and the technical side is still relatively bearish. We need to pay attention to the 0.6129 support level.
5. Key events and risk warnings
Federal officials' speeches: FOMC Permanent Voting avaforexcn.committee and New York Fed Chairman Williams will deliver a speech, which may send more policy signals and affect the trend of the US dollar.
OPEC+ Conference:On July 6, the OPEC+ meeting will discuss the production resolution. If the increase in production may send dovish signals, it may further suppress oil prices and affect avaforexcn.commodity currencies.
Geopolitical risks: Pay attention to the latest developments in the Middle East, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and Sino-US trade relations, which may cause market risk aversion sentiment fluctuations.
Conclusion: On June 25, 2025, the foreign exchange market faces a avaforexcn.complex environment of interweaving bulls and bears. The rise in expectations of the Fed's interest rate cut, the strong German economic data and the easing of the Middle East constitute positive factors, while partial differences within the Federal Reserve, weak euro zone economy and concerns about crude oil demand have created negative pressure. Investors need to pay close attention to key economic data, central bank policy statements and geopolitical dynamics, flexibly adjust trading strategies, and focus on volatility opportunities in major currency pairs such as the euro against the US dollar, pound against the US dollar and the US dollar against the Japanese yen.
The above content is all about "【Ava Aihua Official Website】: Collection of Positive and Negative News that Influences the Foreign Exchange Market". It was carefully avaforexcn.compiled and edited by Aihua Avatrade Forex Editor. I hope it will be helpful to your trading! Thanks for the support!
Due to the author's limited ability and time constraints, some content in the article still needs to be discussed and studied in depth. Therefore, in the future, the author will conduct extended research and discussion on the following issues: