Powell said it would take more time before the rate cut, and gold fell below the 3310 mark at one point!

On June 25, early trading in Asia on Wednesday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 97.94. On Tuesday, the US dollar index continued to fall nearly 0.50% in the Asian and European sessions, falling below the 98 mark, and then rebounded slightly after Powell's hinting that he would resist a call for a rate cut in July, and eventually closed down 0.40% to 97.96. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2960%, while the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.8310%. In the ceasefire to crack down on risk aversion, and Powell said it would take more time before considering a rate cut, spot gold fell below the $3,310 mark for a time and finally closed down 1.67% to $3,322.82/oz; spot silver finally closed down 0.46% to $35.90/oz. Oil prices fell 6%, hitting a two-week low as markets expected the Iraq-Israel ceasefire to reduce the risk of oil supply disruptions in the Middle East. WTI crude oil fell back below $64/barrel during the session, and finally closed down 3.35% at $64.96/barrel; Brent crude oil closed down 3.7% at $67.73/barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 97.94. The dollar index is falling as traders react to avaforexcn.comments from Fed Chairman Powell. Jerome Powell said the current interest rate is moderately restricted. Traders believe the remarks suggest that the Fed is ready to cut interest rates. Technically, the U.S. dollar index is trying to close below support level 98.00–98.20. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move to the next support level, which is in the 96.70–96.90 range.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1614. It broke through its annual high of 1.1641 despite being driven by a weak dollar driven by easing conflict in the Middle East. Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, which improved market sentiment and ultimately suppressed the dollar. Technically, if the EUR/USD closes above the 1.1620 level, it will move towards resistance at 1.1675–1.1690.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3618. The pound/dollar rose on Monday, with prices rising sharply after the U.S. chose to step directly into the recently escalated Israel-Iran conflict. The Trump administration bypassed Congressional authorization and ordered a series of attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, causing the crude oil market to soar. The parties temporarily agreed to a ceasefire after Iran launched a retaliatory attack on U.S. Air Force facilities in Qatar earlier on Monday, and negotiations between Iran and Israel are expected to begin. Technically, successful testing of resistance level 1.3620–1.3640 will open the way for testing the next resistance level 1.3730–1.3750.

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

Which trading was held in Asian trading, gold trading was around 3323.34. Precious metals fell as tensions in the Middle East eased. Traders are ready for Fed Chairman Jerome Powell to testify later Wednesday. Gold fell from its recent highs after news of a ceasefire in Israel and Iran. The armistice agreement between the two countries came into effect after Iran launched four waves of attacks on the Israeli-occupied area.

Technical: Gold prices fell sharply, and the 50-day simple moving average (SMA) is being tested at $3,317, which is the first support level. As described by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), momentum seems to be inclined toward a downward trend. Therefore, gold prices are expected to fall further in the short term. Gold price support is at $3,300, followed by a June 24 low of $3,295. Once the above support falls below the above support, the next support level of gold prices will be the May 29 low of $3,245. To restore bullishness, gold prices must overcome 340$0. Once this level is broken, the next key resistance is at the $3450 mark, followed by an all-time high of $3500.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Wednesday, crude oil trading was around 64.66. The United States launched an air strike on Iran's nuclear facilities on June 22, and Iran launched a missile strike on the U.S. Air Force Base in Uded, Qatar on June 23 in retaliation. However, Qatar's air defense system successfully intercepted all missiles without causing casualties. This "restrained" retaliation measures have strengthened investors' expectations that the situation in the Middle East may ease and reduced the role of pushing up oil prices. US President Trump even claimed on June 23 that Israel and Iran have agreed to a full ceasefire, and the ceasefire plan will be implemented from 0:00 on the 24th of US Eastern Time. Although Israel and Iran did not respond to this, the market's risk aversion sentiment cooled down rapidly, and crude oil prices were suppressed.

Technical: Since the support and resistance levels point to the price range, it is still possible to further decline to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of US$64.50. Note that similar price levels are represented by the intersection of the uptrend line and the downtrend line and the previous temporary fluctuations. Then avaforexcn.comes the dynamic 50-day MA trend indicator, now at $63.95. It was last recaptured and confirmed in early June. The current decline is the first time since then to test it as a support level. Of course, if the support level and bullish reversal are well above the 50-day line, this will be a sign of stronger demand.

Forex market trading reminder on June 25, 2025

09:30 Australian May Weighted CPI Annual Rate

16:00 Switzerland June ZEW Investor Confidence Index

22:00 Total U.S. New Home Sales in May

22:00 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell testified and stated

22:30 EIA crude oil inventories in the week from the United States to June 20< /p>

22:30EIA Cushing crude oil inventories in the United States to June 20th

22:30EIA Strategic Oil Reserve Inventories in the United States to June 20th

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