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Hello everyone, today Avatrade Aihua Foreign Exchange will bring you "[Avatradescn Forex Platform]: Oil prices have risen by more than 4%, the United States and the United Kingdom have reached a trade agreement, and investors are hoping for a breakthrough in trade negotiations." Hope it will be helpful to you! The original content is as follows:
Basic news
On Friday (May 9, Beijing time), spot gold trading was around 3315.75, gold prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with the UK, thus increasing the hope of reaching such an agreement with other countries; US crude oil trading was around 60.20 US dollars per barrel, oil prices rose more than 4% on Thursday, and investors were hoping for a breakthrough in trade negotiations.
Focus on China's trade account data during the day, Canada's unemployment rate in April. Stock Market
U.S. stocks rose Thursday as investors were pleased with the new trade agreement reached between the United States and the United Kingdom, which agreed to reduce import tariffs on U.S. goods from 5.1% to 1.8% and expand import access to U.S. goods, while the United States maintains a benchmark tariff of 10% on U.S. goods.
After the U.S.-UK agreement exempted tariffs on aircraft parts produced by Rolls-Royce, airline stocks rose sharply, with the S&P 500 passenger aviation index closing up 5.4%, and Delta led the gains, up 7.2%.
U.S. avaforexcn.commerce Secretary Lutnik said the UK will buy $10 billion Boeing aircraft, pushing Boeing stock to rise 3.3%, becoming the best performing Dow Jones stock.
Scott Welch, chief investment officer of Certuity in Potomac, Maryland, said the market did respond positively today to the news of a deal with the UK. Trump is a showman, so when he says the talks in Geneva this weekend will be substantial, let's just listen, but no one else canIt's hard to say that the market is looking for a breathing excuse and thinks we will get a more rational result than a global trade war that leaves no room for nothing. ”
Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.62% to 41368.45 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.58% to 5663.94 points, and the Nasdaq rose 1.07% to 17928.14 points.
In terms of sectors, consumer discretionary stocks, industrial stocks and energy stocks performed best, while health care stocks and utility stocks underperformed.
Russell 2000 small cap index rose 1.9%, closing at its highest level since April 2, the date the tariff was first announced.
Semiconductor stocks closed up 1%, continuing the 1.7% gain of the previous trading day, A spokesman for the U.S. Department of avaforexcn.commerce said Wednesday that the Trump administration plans to lift restrictions on the export of advanced artificial intelligence chips in the Biden era.
The Fed kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday and said the increased risk of inflation and unemployment has made the outlook for the world's largest economy even more bleak. The market still expects the Fed to cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points for the first time at its July meeting, although the market expects the possibility of a July cut from 92% a week ago to 60% according to CME's FedWatchTool.
In terms of the economy, the number of initial unemployment claims fell more than expected last week, which some analysts believe is a sign that labor The power market remains stable, but another report shows that non-farm productivity fell for the first time in nearly three years.
Chip maker ARM fell 6.2%, after the avaforexcn.company released its first-quarter revenue and profit forecasts lower than Wall Street expectations.
Gold gold continued its decline on Thursday, down nearly 2%, after U.S. President Trump announced a trade deal with the UK, thus raising hopes of such a deal with other countries. Spot gold fell 1.7% to $3,307.84 an ounce. U.S. gold futures closed down 2.5% at $3,306.
Trump and the UK Prime Minister Stamer announced a "breakthrough agreement" on trade issues. The 10% tariff remains imposed on goods imported from the UK, while the UK agreed to reduce its tariffs from 5.1% to 1.8% and provide more access to U.S. goods. Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, said that if an agreement is also reached between the two major economies, then upward resistance will be great, and gold should fall back, at least to $3,200. "
Spot silver fell to $32.48, platinum rose 0.8% to $981.60, and palladium rose 0.3% to $974.81. Oil market
Oil prices rose about 3% on Thursday, with investors hoping for a breakthrough in trade negotiations. Brent crude oil futures closed up 2.8%, with a settlement price of $62.84 per barrel. U.S. crude oil futures rose 3.2% to US 59.91Yuan.
Ole Hvalbye, an analyst at Swedish Nordic Bank (SEB), said optimism surrounding trade negotiations provided support for the market. Analysts warn that recent tariff-induced volatility in oil markets has not yet ended.
Jim Ritterbusch of US energy consulting firm Ritterbuschand Associates said in a report: "The global risk premium that has driven oil prices in the past few years has been replaced by tariff premiums, which will also fluctuate with the latest news from the Trump administration."
U.S. President Trump and British Prime Minister Stamer announced a breakthrough trade agreement, where the United States will still impose a 10% tariff on goods imported from the United Kingdom, and the United Kingdom agreed to reduce tariffs on the United States from 5.1% to 1.8% and provide more access to U.S. goods. In terms of supply, OPEC+ will increase oil production and put pressure on oil prices.
A Reuters survey showed that while the original production increase plan had already avaforexcn.come into effect, OPEC's oil production fell in April as the United States once again tried to curb oil flows, resulting in a decrease in Venezuela's supply while Iraq and Libya's production also fell.
Citi Research analysts cut Brent crude oil’s three-month price forecast to $55 from $60 a barrel, but maintain the long-term forecast of $60 a barrel this year. They added that a nuclear deal between the United States and Iran could drop Brent oil prices to $50 a barrel as global supply increases, but if there is no deal, oil prices could rise above $70.
Foreign market
The dollar rose against the safe-haven yen and the Swiss franc on Thursday, a bilateral trade agreement between the United States and the United Kingdom eased market tensions, while the pound reversed the rise after the Bank of England's interest rate cut.
U.S. President Trump announced a "breakthrough" trade agreement with the UK on Thursday, retaining a benchmark 10% tariff on British imports, including cars. Merk Hard Currency Fund president and chief investment officer Axel Merk said the market believes the trade deal is positive because it means Trump envisions a 10% baseline for friendly countries, and anything other than that can be negotiated. ”
He said: "For whatever reason, today's market sees this as good news. In my opinion, the 10% benchmark tariff is still high for goods entering the U.S. and I think it does change the way global trade works. ”
After the trade agreement was announced, the dollar hit a four-week high of 146.175 yen, with New York rising 1.55% to 146 yen at the end of the trading day.
The dollar rose 1.07% to 0.8323 CHF, tying the highest level since May 1. Steve Englander, head of global G10 foreign exchange research at Standard Chartered Bank, said the agreement could be used as other hopes to sign with the United States.Template for trade agreements. "It is positive for risk appetite to reach a seemingly feasible agreement. I think the market will focus on what is disclosed and think about how much of it will apply to other countries, or whether it will become a template for other agreements."
The major Wall Street stock indexes, including the indicator S&P 500, were boosted by market optimism about the trade deal. As the dollar rises, gold prices fall. Spot gold fell 1.74% to $3,305.76 per ounce.
The Bank of England cut interest rates on Thursday, but the uncertain impact of Trump's tariff measures on economic growth has led to three different positions unexpectedly among policymakers. The Monetary Policy avaforexcn.committee (MPC) voted 5:4 in favor of a 25 basis point cut. avaforexcn.commissioners Dingra and Taylor support a larger rate cut, with Chief Economist Peel and External avaforexcn.commissioner Mann hoping to keep interest rates unchanged.
The day before, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged but indicated an increased risk of rising inflation and unemployment. The pound gave up earlier gains against the dollar, with New York falling 0.37% at $1.32410 at the end of the trading day. The U.S. dollar index rose 0.41%, hitting its highest since April 10, of 100.31. The euro fell 0.71% against the US dollar to $1.122,175.
International News
The United States and Britain reached a trade agreement but the details are yet to be finalized
U.S. President Trump announced at the White House on the 8th that the United States and Britain have reached a new trade agreement, partially withdrawing tariffs in specific areas, and further expanding market access to products from both sides. However, many details of the agreement are yet to be finalized, and the so-called "reciprocal tariff" that the US previously imposed has not been cancelled. Trump told the media at the White House that final details of the agreement will be finalized in the next few weeks. According to documents released by the White House, the first 100,000 cars exported from the UK to the United States each year will be taxed at an additional tariff rate of 10%, while the excess will be taxed at an additional tariff rate of 25%. The UK will cut or lift non-tariff barriers and expand market access to US beef, ethanol, cereals and other products and some industrial products. The British government issued a statement on its official website on the same day saying that Britain and the United States will cut tariffs from each other. Tariffs on steel and aluminum products exported from the UK to the United States will be lifted. The tariffs on cars imported from the UK to the US will be reduced from 27.5% now to 10%. In addition, within a certain quota, the United States will also impose zero tariffs on the export of British agricultural products. The UK will reduce tariffs on ethanol imported from the United States to zero. In addition, the White House emphasized that the 10% so-called "reciprocal tariffs" previously imposed by the United States on its trading partners will continue to be retained. Trump told the media that the 10% tariff in the UK is not a template for other countries, which may be the minimum tariff, and other countries may be higher than this tariff rate.
U.S. automakers are dissatisfied with the trade deal with the UK
Detroit automakers on Thursday focused their finger on the trade deal Trump reached with the UK, saying that their agreements with Canada and Mexico should have been given priority. “Under the agreement, importing a British car that contains almost no U.S. parts will now be cheaper than importing half of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA)-compliant cars from Mexico or Canada," said Matt Blunt, chairman of the U.S. Automotive Policy avaforexcn.committee, which represents Ford Motor, General Motors and Jeep parent Stellantis. "This harms U.S. automakers, suppliers and auto workers. "The US-UK agreement lowers tariffs on the top 100,000 vehicles imported from Britain to 10% from 25%. This move has generally avaforexcn.comforted the British auto industry, including manufacturers such as Jaguar Land Rover and Aston Martin. "We hope that the preferential access benefits British cars receive avaforexcn.compared to North American cars will not set a precedent for future negotiations with avaforexcn.competitors in Asia and Europe. Trump seeks tax increases for wealthy people who earn $2.5 million or more per year
U.S. President Trump is pushing members of Congress to raise tax rates on some of the richest Americans to offset other tax cuts in his iconic economic plan. According to people familiar with the matter, Trump's proposals include a new tax rate of 39.6% for individuals with an annual income of at least $2.5 million, or a joint income of $5 million for couples. The highest tax rate for individuals is currently 37%. According to a person familiar with the matter, Trump's proposals include The request was made Wednesday when calling House Speaker Mike Johnson and reiterated his desire to remove the collateral tax benefits enjoyed by venture capital and private equity fund managers. Trump’s signal on whether to raise taxes on the rich is more contradictory. He has said such taxes could prompt wealthy people to move to other countries and may be bad for Republicans in the election. However, the proposal avaforexcn.comes as members of Congress work to find a source of funding for what Trump calls “a grand and beautiful bill.” The trillion-dollar package plans to continue Trump's first term tax cuts.
New York Fed Survey: U.S. consumers' medium-term inflation expectations rose to nearly three-year highs
According to a monthly survey released by the New York Fed, U.S. consumers' medium-term inflation expectations climbed to nearly three-year highs in April, while their views on the job market deteriorated. The survey shows that the median consumer estimates for the next three years rose to 3.2% in April, the highest level since July 2022. But expectations for inflation in the avaforexcn.coming year remained stable, and expectations for long-term inflation were small Fed officials are closely watching U.S. consumers’ expectations for future price pressures to assess whether changes in policy, especially trade policy adjustments, will trigger sustained inflation. The scope and duration of tariffs are unclear, which may lead to increased uncertainty about future inflation. The Fed announced on Wednesday that interest rates remain unchanged, pointing out that the economy remains stable, but uncertainty about the outlook has risen. Recent surveys show household confidence deteriorated sharply.
The Trump administration considers Gulf FortuneFunds open fast investment channels
The Trump administration has internal discussions to open a special fast track for transactions in the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, which is expected to pave the way for large amounts of investment. People familiar with the matter who declined to be named because of the non-public discussions said that the review of reforming the U.S. avaforexcn.commission on Foreign Investment (CFIUS) is still in its early stages. These measures will accelerate large investments by major U.S. allies in the United States, but officials may still reject the idea. Some details are expected to be released during President Donald Trump's visit to the Middle East next week, people familiar with the matter said. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Besent may accompany him to follow up on CFIUS consultations, which heat up during talks held in Washington during the International Monetary Fund (IMF)/World Bank spring meeting.
Bank of England Governor Bailey: Being "open" to the interest rate decisions for the June meeting
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey was interviewed after the Bank of England announced that it would cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the case of internal differences, and the voting results were more hawkish than expected. Asked if the market almost ruled out the possibility of a rate cut in June was an appropriate move, Bailey said: "I think the only thing we can be sure of is that in the world we are currently in, a lot will happen over the next six weeks or so." "So I have to tell you honestly. You know, I'm very open to every meeting, and for us, every meeting is dynamic. That's our philosophy. It's not constantly changing, but a permanent philosophy. So, frankly, I'm not always open to it." Bailey said that by the June meeting, more dynamics on international and domestic development will be grasped, including avaforexcn.compensation solutions that have been pushing up basic inflationary pressures.
The number of applicants for the first time in the United States has fallen after a brief surge in spring break
The number of applicants for unemployment benefits in the United States fell last week, after a short-term surge in the number of applicants at the end of April coincided with spring break and Easter holidays. As of the week ending May 3, the number of first-time unemployment benefits fell by 13,000 to 228,000. This data roughly matches the median forecasts obtained by institutions from economists' surveys. According to data released by the U.S. Department of Labor on Thursday, the number of people who continued to claim unemployment benefits in the previous week also fell to 1.88 million. Despite the impact of increasing economic uncertainty in tariffs and the Trump administration’s move to reduce the size of the federal government, the number of unemployment benefits applicants has remained at a low level overall, indicating limited layoffs. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said Wednesday that the labor market remained solid despite tariffs that could lead to higher unemployment and inflation.
Source: The United States and Russia are exploring the recovery of natural gas delivery to EuropeThe pathway
Eight people familiar with the matter said that as Europe and Russia's energy relations were in a cold winter, officials in Washington and Moscow had discussed the United States' help to restore Russian gas sales to Europe. After the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in 2022, Europe significantly cut its imports of natural gas, a move that caused Russian exporter Gazprom to lose $7 billion in the second year. Trump is pushing for peace between Russia and Ukraine, which increases the possibility of gas relations thawing. Sources say that getting Moscow back into the EU gas market may help consolidate the peace deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin. While most European countries are seeking alternative supplies, some buyers remain, and industry officials say more buyers may return once a peace deal is reached.
World Gold Council: Last month was the strongest capital inflow since March 2022
With gold association, coupled with the continued surge in gold prices, pushed the asset management scale of global gold ETFs to US$379 billion, an increase of 10% that month. At the same time, gold trading volume in all markets around the world has increased significantly. By region, Asian capital inflows surged, North America demand was strong, while Europe saw moderate capital outflows.
Domestic News
Rate cuts are implemented, guiding the downward trend of the avaforexcn.comprehensive financing cost of the real economy
According to the website of the People's Bank of China, on May 8, the People's Bank of China carried out a reverse repurchase operation of 158.6 billion yuan with fixed interest rates and quantity bidding, lowering the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage point, that is, the open market's 7-day reverse repurchase operation rate was reduced from the current 1.5% to 1.4%. Since no reverse repurchase expired on the same day, a net injection of 158.6 billion yuan was achieved. On the same day, according to the "Notice of the People's Bank of China on Lowering the Interest Rate of Personal Housing Provident Fund Loan", the personal housing provident fund loan interest rate was lowered by 0.25 percentage points. Experts said that this interest rate cut will not only help boost market sentiment, but also help to maintain the stability of the net interest margin of avaforexcn.commercial banks. At the same time, through interest rate transmission, it will effectively reduce the avaforexcn.comprehensive financing costs of the real economy and consolidate the economic fundamentals. Lowering the interest rate of personal housing provident fund loans will better meet housing consumption needs and support the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market.
Shenzhen supports enterprises to actively issue technology innovation bonds
On May 8, the official website of the Traders Association showed that 36 avaforexcn.companies have announced the issuance of technology innovation bonds, with a total issuance scale of 21 billion yuan. Shenzhen supports enterprises to actively issue technology innovation bonds, and the two avaforexcn.companies are on the list of the first batch of technology innovation bonds issuances. Among them, Luxshare Precision Industrial Co., Ltd. plans to issue 1 billion yuan of technology innovation bonds. The purpose of the funds raised is to optimize the avaforexcn.company's debt structure, supplement the avaforexcn.company's working capital, and empower the construction of high-end intelligent manufacturing bases and digital manufacturing upgrades; Shenzhen Investment Holding Co., Ltd. plans to issue 1 billion yuan of technology innovation bonds with a term of 3 years and 10 years. The funds raised will be used specifically to its mothers.The fund invests in scientific and technological innovation fields such as intelligent manufacturing, high-end equipment, semiconductors and integrated circuits, AI and embodied robots, accurately matching the needs of "early investment, small investment, and long-term investment".
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