Britain and the United States reach "breakthrough" trade agreement, Bank of England cuts interest rates by 25 basis points

On May 9, in the early trading of Asian market on Friday, Beijing time, the US dollar index hovered around 100.66. On Thursday, Trump announced a "breakthrough" trade deal with the UK, and the U.S. dollar index hit its highest reading since April 10, finally closing up 0.76% to 99.86. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 4.2740%; the two-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 3.7870%. Spot gold once hit $3290 and finally closed down 1.79% at $3304.98/ounce; spot silver closed down 0.15% at $32.45/ounce. International oil prices rose by more than 3% due to the UK-US trade agreement and the United States' announcement of sanctions on Iranian oil avaforexcn.companies. WTI crude oil finally closed up 3.99% at $60.22 per barrel; Brent crude oil closed up 3.69% at $63.17 per barrel.

Analysis of major currencies

Dollar Index: As of press time, the US dollar index hovers around 100.55. Sentiment remained firmly high and boosted the US dollar (USD) after the Trump administration announced an upcoming U.S.-UK trade deal that would allow Britain to avoid high "peer-to-peer" tariffs that would re-invigorate on July 9. President Trump temporarily withdrew his own "liberation day" tariffs. The United States will still impose a 10% tariff on all imports from the UK, which may curb market sentiment in the near future. Technically, the US dollar index is trying to close below resistance level 100.20–https://avaforexcn.com100.40 above. If this attempt is successful, the U.S. dollar index will move towards the next resistance level 101.40–101.60.

Euro: As of press time, the euro/dollar hovers around 1.1226. The euro/dollar fell to lows on Thursday, down more than two-thirds of the day's opening quotes after the US dollar (USD) received a wide market boost after a preliminary announcement of an upcoming trade deal between the United States and the United Kingdom. Europe still appears to be tense with the Trump administration, and White House officials continue to warn the entire EU mainland to "not retaliate against" on U.S. import taxes. Technically, if the EUR/USD remains below the support level of 1.1275–1.1290, it will move towards the next support level of 1.1110–1.1130.

GBP: As of press time, GBP/USD is hovering around 1.3239. The GBP/USD started on Thursday with an early gain, driven by a widespread 25 basis point rate cut. However, the bullish momentum of the pound quickly disappeared and the market turned to trade headlines from the United States. Investors hope the U.S. can quickly reach a trade deal in order to reduce its self-imposed tariff stance. Technically, if GBP/USD closes below the 1.3300 level, it will move towards the next support level 1.3200–1.3220. .

Analysis of gold and crude oil market trends

1) Analysis of gold market trends

On Friday, gold trading around 3320.21. Gold continued its decline on Thursday, falling nearly 2%. Spot gold hit a low of $3,288.72/ounce intraday, closing at $3,305.70/ounce. It was followed by US President Trump’s announcement of a trade agreement with the UK, which increased hopes of reaching such agreements with other countries, alleviated market tensions, and suppressed gold’s safe-haven buying. The rise in US dollar, US stocks and US Treasury yields also suppressed the trend of gold prices. This trading day requires close attention to news related to the international trade situation and changes in market sentiment. In addition, many Fed officials will make speeches, and investors also need to pay attention.

Technical: On the daily chart, gold has recently risen back to above 3400, driven by some negative news related to tariffs. But Trump'sThe statement caused a pullback due to positive market expectations. From a risk management perspective, the better entry point for bulls is near the main trend line, while the bears will pay attention to whether the price has fallen below this level to increase bearish bets on the 2957 line. On the 4-hour chart, the price recently broke through the key band level 3367 and continued its upward trend and rose above 3400. But then the price fell back below 3367. From a risk management perspective, bears may wait until the pullback reaches this level to look for opportunities for further declines. The bulls hope to see the price rise to 3367 again to attract more buying and push the market to hit historical highs.

2) Analysis of crude oil market trends

On Friday, crude oil trading was around 59.62. As the Sino-US trade war is expected to peak, oil prices are expected to continue their rebound momentum, breaking through $60 per barrel. The United States and China will hold trade talks this week. OPEC+ has announced that it will increase oil production at a faster rate. Overnight, Brent and WTI crude oil fell 1.66% and 1.73% respectively, mainly due to the lack of confidence in the results of the trade talks, and the positive signals released by the Iran nuclear agreement negotiations alleviated concerns about supply shortages. The current trend of international crude oil prices is entering a sensitive period of multiple factors. The uncertainty of trade negotiations poses dual pressures to Iran's supply potential, and short-term oil price fluctuations will be more dominated by geopolitics and inventory dynamics. Against the backdrop of Fed's policy staying on the sidelines, weak signals on the demand side may also put pressure on the crude oil market. This trading day requires close attention to news related to the international trade situation and changes in market sentiment. In addition, many Fed officials will make speeches, and investors also need to pay attention.

Technical: From the daily chart level, the medium-term trend moving average system is arranged downward, and the medium-term objective trend direction is downward. After the oil price hits a low of 55.20, the frequent alternation of bulls and bears formed will accumulate momentum for shorts in the medium term and are expected to further decline to the 50 position in the later period. The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil rebounded continuously and touched around 60.30, blocked and fell. Oil prices fall through the moving average system, and the short-term objective trend direction enters the conversion rhythm. The K-line closed continuously, and the low point gradually went downward. The fast and slow line of the MACD indicator is in the bear area, and the bear momentum is full. It is expected that after the intraday crude oil trend rebounds slightly, the probability of continuing to decline is high.

Forex market trading reminder on May 9, 2025

①To be determined China's April trade account

②15:00 Switzerland April consumer confidence index

③16:40 Bank of England Governor Bailey made a speech

④17:55 Federal Reserve Director Barr made a speech

⑤18:45 Federal Reserve Director Coogler made a speech

⑥20:30 Canadian April employment

⑦20:30 Federal Reserve Williams issued a speechKeynote speech

⑧20:30 Fed Balkin attended a fireside conversation

⑨22:00 Fed Gulsby delivered a speech at the event

⑩23:30 Fed Williams delivered a speech

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